Fitch improved the forecast on growth of Russia’s GDP in 2017

International rating Agency Fitch improved the forecast on growth of Russia’s GDP in 2017 to 2% expected in June of 1.6%, according to the Agency.

«Fitch has revised the forecasts of GDP growth in 2017 to 2% from previously expected in June of 1.6%, reflecting faster-than-expected increase in domestic demand. Growth accelerated to 2.5% yoy in the second quarter of 2017 with 0.5% in the first quarter of 2017, helped by growth in private consumption and investment,» the Agency says.

The forecast for GDP growth Russia in 2018 is 2.2%, and in 2019 — 2%. «We forecast that growth will average more than 2% in 2018-2019 in connection with the reduction of uncertainty, the easing of monetary policy, stability of the ruble and the Outlook for oil prices. Significant structural reforms that can accelerate economic growth is unlikely before the presidential elections in 2018», — said the Agency.

The forecast for inflation in Russia for the current year is 4% 2018-2019 — 4,5%. «It is expected that inflation will remain low, averaging 4.5% in 2018-2019 — despite the risks associated with the variability of the exchange rate, a recovery in domestic demand and changes in food prices», — says the Agency.

Fitch also expects a gradual easing of monetary policy the Bank of Russia in 2017 and 2018. The interest rate of the Central Bank, according to Fitch ratings, at the end of 2017 will reach 8% by the end of 2018 is 7.5%, and by the end of 2019 — 7%. Now the rate is 8.5%.

The new forecast of Ministry of economic development comes from growth of the Russian economy in 2017 is 2.1% (previous estimate — 2%). The MAYOR of the Russian Federation expects in the current year inflation is 3.7%, for the next three years – 4%.